Pool boy

Tonight is the playoff pool picking time, and I figure now is as good a time as any to figure out how I will go about making my picks.

Strategy?

Common wisdom usually holds that the best strategy is to load up on players from teams that are expected to go far in the playoffs. This year, Detroit and Ottawa would be good examples. High-scoring players from low-ranked teams (Brad Richards from Tampa, perhaps) are worth a late pick but are too much of a gamble to be picked early.

The problems

One problem with this strategy is that selecting your players devolves into picking the best teams, and the end-of-season standings have generally done most of the work for you, which is not nearly as fun. A second problem is that strategy is generally boring. A final, and more interesting, problem, is that the highest scoring player on a first-round team is still more likely to earn more points than a fourth-line winger on a Cup team. So how does one go about making these choices?

Numbers

In theory, a player's scoring (points per game) should stay more or less constant in the playoffs. In past seasons, goal scoring has declined during the playoffs, but that is league-wide so a player's relative worth should be about the same. So it would simply be a matter of computing some sort of probabilistic measure of expected games played (EGP), and the equation EGP * PPG would be all you need to know to pick your team. The EGP would be a trickier number to determine, but could be based on historical winning percentages of 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc., teams in-season records against each other, and a few other numbers. All of which starts to sound really complicated but probably isn't.

The bottom line

The joke regarding office pools is that the woman (I'm sorry, I didn't start it) who knows the least about sports and more or less randomly makes her picks ends up winning. So I will feel free to let sentimental thinking, impulsive moves and my personal favourite, players with funny names (unfortunately, Satan didn't make the playoffs) colour my judgement.

I cobbled together a list of playoff players (Word, 1.3 MB) and their stats during an all-to-frequent moment of lassitude while at work. If you're in a pool, it might help you with your 'strategy'.

And, the next day .... the picks:

1. Dany Heatley (Ottawa)
   
2. Brendan Shanahan (Detroit)
   
3. Daniel Briere (Buffalo)
   
4. Jaromir Jagr (New York Rangers)
   
5. Simon Gagne (Philadelphia)
6. Martin Havlat (Ottawa)
7. Steve Yzerman (Detroit)
8. Rod Brind'Amour (Carolina)
9. Michael Nylander (New York Rangers)
10. Raffi Torres (Edmonton)

I went mostly with the play-it-safe strategy, loading up on players from top teams (Ottawa, Detroit). I hedged a little with the Buffalo-Philadelphia series, so I am guaranteed one player in the next round between Briere and Gagne. The two Rangers players could gain a lot of points if they play more than one round, but that is far from a certainty. Torres is more or less a joke pick.

The bargain

Last week, I managed to pick up this windbreaker, in gently used condition, at a thrift store, for $2. That works to a roughly 98% discount, which isn't too shabby.

But I use this story and title mainly as an excuse to quote the following poem, by the fictional Canadian poet Gavin Gunhold, from the Gordon Korman masterpiece A Semester in the Life of a Garbage Bag.

The Bargain
by Gavin Gunhold

After the hair tonic saleman's toupee fell off
He decided to lower the price.
So I bought six cases.
A bargain is a bargain

Why not read more of Mr. Gunhold's poetry?

Hold to 10

Every day, I walk past the construction site for the Manitoba Hydro building (live construction cam) that is being built on Portage Avenue in downtown Winnipeg. My shift starts at the same time as the workers, so I often see them arriving and congregating.

This morning, I was a bit late, so I was able to observe some of what I'd like to believe is their regular morning routine. The workers were assembled on a platform near one of the modular buildings, engaged in some synchronized stretching, much like a kids soccer team, except these are grown men and there were about a hundred of them. I thought it was cute.